The new and the old have hardly ever lived in harmony. In international relations, the means of addressing conflicts between the new and the old are decisive factors to international life each year.
A demostration in Odessa, Ukraine
The new and the old have hardly ever lived in harmony. In international relations, the means of addressing conflicts between the new and the old are decisive factors to international life each year. To have a less tense 2015, the international community must change the way they address the conflicts as the cost of those conflicts in 2014 was too high.
1. Since Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, the fourth-largest US investment bank, on September 15, 2008, the world’s economic situation has become tenser year by year. 2014 marked such a tense level on the international scene, especially in relations between powers, that it felt like humanity was approaching its tolerance threshold. It was mostly assumed that this was the result of the global economic crisis. This is not entirely wrong, but not completely true. So why don’t we discuss the new-old rule to explain tensions in 2014.
In the Ukrainian crisis, a hotspot in 2014, the new was a Ukrainian notice in November 2013 that the country was on the verge of economic and financial bankruptcy. The decision of former President Victor Yanukovych on a postponed agreement of economic links with the European Union; this was the last straw in for the new, with the old looking towards Russian support in difficult circumstances. This resulted in a coup by Ukraine's pro-Western forces against Yanukovych and the electoral triumph of President Petro Poroshenko in the May 25, 2014 election.
This new group clashed with existing pro-Russian groups in Ukraine. Armed conflicts occurred and rapidly became a civil war, not only because of Kiev’s choice, but also because of the entrusting of old forces of Russia and the West. Russia’s growth certainly conflicted with the EU and US, who were monitoring the old order.
According to the explanation of the EU and the US on the EU’s status quo broken by Russia, Crimea’s merger with Russia on March 21, 2014 was merely an excuse from both sides for their behaviour in the new-old conflict. Sanctions from the EU and the US; the establishment of the NATO Rapid Reaction Force, and NATO’s expansion, considered by Russia to be the biggest threat to its security (in accordance with a military doctrine approved by President V.Putin on December 26, 2914), were inevitable results of the approach related sides used to address the new-old conflict.
2. In the Middle East, the appearance of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) has threatened the region, from territory to Islam’s ideology. An anti-terrorist alliance, comprised of 60 nations and headed by the US, has rapidly formed to maintain the existing order – the old. The devastating war between these two forces can be considered a vivid example for the new-old conflict. In another turn, the bloody war lasting over seven weeks in the middle of 2014 in the Gaza Strip was also a kind of clash, between the new governance of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in gaining the rights to establish an independent state (applying for membership in international organisations) and the stagnation of the Middle East peace process.
3. China’s miracle growth (according to the International Monetary Fund, regarding purchasing power parity, China surpassed the US and became the biggest economy) has affected the situation in the Asia Pacific. The declaration of Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), the placement of Haiyang Shiyou 981 oil rig in Vietnam’s continental shelf, and accelerated rehabilitation and construction activities on the reef Gac Ma (Johnson) and Chu Thap (Fiery Cross) under Vietnam’s sovereignty have created new situations in the region. Backlash from countries — Vietnam’s diplomatic struggle for China’s withdrawal of the oil rig, the Declaration on the East Sea at the 24th ASEAN Ministerial Summit on May 10, 2014, Japan’s changes to its right of collective self-defense on July 1, 2014 and the US House of Representatives’ resolution H.Res-714 supporting the efforts for the peaceful settlement of disputes in the East Sea — were certain consequences of the concern that the newly emerging matters would break the international law system, particularly the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea.
In 2014, the Asia Pacific also saw conflict between regional countries’ in their aspirations for development and the current growth slump. It made important contributions to boost negotiations for free trade agreements (FTA), from the bilateral level (the completion of negotiations for the Vietnam-the Republic of Korea FTA on December 10, 2014 and between Vietnam and the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union on December 15, 2014) to multi-lateral level (negotiation process for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific).
4. Aviation disasters, the Ebola epidemic’s rampage in West Africa and accusations of network spies and terrorism were vivid examples for the new-old conflict in 2014. Airlines’ operations, particularly Malaysia Airlines and Indonesia’s AirAsia, experienced troubles.
The Ebola virus, not new in Africa as it was reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1976, became a global epidemic forcing the world to face prospects of a dire economic situation. The world also witnessed the hostile relationship between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the US when the US accused the DPRK of attacks on Sony Pictures.
5. The new-old conflict is inevitable but responses to it are of interest. The escalating hostilities in Ukraine and the Middle East result from traditional solutions tending towards violence and imposition. If related sides participated in dialogues from the beginning, Ukrainian society would not have been deeply separated. If relevant sides in the Middle East acted constructively towards peace, there would be no existence of extremist IS terrorism. This hypothesis is persuasive when looking at examples in Asia Pacific where conflicts still occurred in 2014 but they did not lead to military fighting, maybe thanks to negotiations, handshakes and especially the understanding of leaders in Asia Pacific about the necessity of resolving the new-old conflict through peaceful means and respect for international law.
NDO
