Vietnam’s GDP growth rate increased 5.46% in the first quarter of this year, less than in the same period last year.
But economists predict the national economy may achieve the goal of 6.7% GDP growth rate if reforms are undertaken aggressively.
Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cung, Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, says it’s important to tighten unnecessary public-invested projects and focus on the truly effective projects with solid economic impact.
Economist Le Dang Doanh shares the view that membership in the ASEAN community will strongly affect Vietnam’s trade balance beginning in the 2nd quarter. Obtaining Official Development Assistance (ODA) loans will be more difficult, resulting in reduced ODA.
Dr. Doanh recommends strong reforms by changing the method of selecting public-invested projects, seizing opportunities of trade liberalization and pushing administrative reforms.
Dr. Nguyen Duc Thanh, Director of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research, calls on the government to go ahead with its macro-economic stabilization goal: “The government should restrain spending but adopt a strategy for spending cut rather than hard landing.
Without this, the budget deficit problem can’t be solved and that will affect the implementation of goals set by the NA. At the same time, we hope that the economy will recover, bringing in more revenues”.
Dr. Dao Van Hung, Director of the Academy of Policy and Development, stressed the need to continue strong institutional and administrative reforms, particularly reforms of state-owned enterprises.
Some economists point to optimistic signals in Vietnam’s economy. Dr. Vu Dinh Anh says the growth target of 6.7% is within reach, adding that the economic restructuring since 2011 plus the reform of the growth model will boost Vietnam’s growth this year.
Can Van Luc, senior advisor at the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam, says “There are many factors that impact growth.
For example, this year’s average oil price will return to a higher level than last year. This year’s food prices will also be higher than last year.
Another factor is the high credit growth, about 18%. We are hopeful about Vietnam’s high economic growth rate”.
VOV5
